In the aftermath of the 2024 U.S. House elections, third-party candidates have become a central topic of discussion, particularly among Republicans. With their razor-thin majority in the House potentially halved due to tight races, GOP leaders are pointing fingers at third-party candidates and the super PACs that supported them. These developments have sparked broader conversations about the role of third-party candidates in shaping election outcomes.
The Role of Third-Party Candidates in Narrow GOP Losses
Third-party candidates played a decisive role in at least three closely contested House races. In Ohio, North Carolina, and Oregon, Libertarian and independent candidates garnered enough votes to potentially tip the scales against Republican contenders. While it’s speculative to assume all these votes would have gone to GOP candidates, the margins of victory highlight the significant impact third-party candidates can have in tightly contested districts.
Ohio’s Northwestern District: Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur retained her seat with a slim margin of just 1,193 votes over Republican Derek Merrin. Libertarian candidate Tom Pruss collected 14,799 votes. The Voter Protection Project, a Democratic-aligned super PAC, spent over $423,000 to support Pruss with targeted digital ads and mail campaigns.
North Carolina’s Eastern District: Freshman Democrat Don Davis defeated Republican Laurie Buckout by 6,303 votes. Libertarian Tom Bailey attracted 9,949 votes, bolstered by $46,348 in spending from the Save Western Culture PAC.
Oregon’s Key Contest: Democrat Janelle Bynum unseated GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer by 9,475 votes. Libertarian Sonja Feintech earned 6,033 votes, while independent Brett Smith garnered 18,233. Combined, Save Western Culture and the Voter Protection Project invested over $371,000 to support Feintech.
These results demonstrate how third-party candidates, often dismissed as peripheral players, can significantly influence the political landscape in competitive districts.
Super PACs and Their Role in Supporting Third-Party Candidates
The involvement of two key super PACs—Voter Protection Project and Save Western Culture—has drawn significant attention. These groups funneled substantial financial resources into supporting third-party candidates in critical races, often with the apparent goal of drawing votes away from Republican candidates.
Voter Protection Project: Founded by Andrew Janz, a former Democratic congressional
candidate, this PAC explicitly opposes Republicans. It spent heavily in states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Oregon to promote Libertarian candidates, arguably weakening GOP contenders. The group has a track record of similar interventions in previous election cycles.
Save Western Culture: Shrouded in mystery, this PAC emerged just weeks before the election. Its FEC filings provide little transparency, listing a UPS store as its address and using previously unknown vendors for its activities. The group has been suspected of Democratic ties, though no concrete evidence links it to any party.
Both organizations are set to disclose their funding sources on December 5, which could illuminate their true motives and affiliations.
Strategic Use of Third-Party Candidates in U.S. Elections
The tactic of leveraging third-party candidates to siphon votes from major-party opponents is not new. Both Democrats and Republicans have historically used this strategy to gain an edge in competitive races.
Democrats have sometimes supported Libertarian candidates to erode Republican vote shares, as seen in this cycle’s North Carolina and Ohio contests.
Similarly, Republicans have backed Green Party candidates to weaken Democratic support, as was evident in Pennsylvania and Arizona races.
However, this strategy is not foolproof. For instance, in Tucson, Arizona, a Green Party candidate’s presence may have cost Democrats a chance to unseat Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani. Despite this, Ciscomani’s margin of victory was slightly greater than the Green Party nominee’s vote total, indicating that third-party dynamics do not always produce clear-cut results.
The Debate Over Third-Party Votes
A recurring question in these discussions is whether third-party voters would have supported a major-party candidate if their preferred option were unavailable. Libertarians, for example, are often assumed to lean Republican, but their voter base is far from monolithic. Some Libertarian voters might abstain altogether or even back Democratic candidates.
This variability underscores the complexity of third-party dynamics. While they are often labeled as “spoilers,” these candidates also represent voters disillusioned with the two-party system. Their presence forces major parties to address broader issues and, at times, recalibrate their platforms.
The Impact on Republican House Control
Republicans secured at least 219 seats, giving them a slim two-seat majority in the House. With three races still undecided, gaining even a handful of additional seats would have provided the GOP with more legislative flexibility. Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, lamented in a post-election memo that third-party candidates likely cost Republicans these crucial victories.
While it remains speculative how Libertarian votes would have split in the absence of third-party candidates, the losses highlight the precarious nature of narrow majorities in Congress. As the GOP prepares for the next legislative session, these dynamics will likely influence their strategies for future elections.
Conclusion
The 2024 U.S. House elections highlighted the significant influence of third-party candidates in shaping political outcomes. From their impact on tight races to the strategic involvement of super PACs, these dynamics underscore the complexities of modern elections. As both parties analyze these results, the role of third-party candidates will remain a crucial factor in shaping future electoral strategies and outcomes. For voters, it’s a reminder of the power each vote holds in a democracy.
Frequently Asked Questions About Third-Party Influence in Elections
1. Why do third-party candidates impact close elections?
In tight races, even a small percentage of votes can determine the outcome. Third-party candidates often attract votes that might otherwise go to one of the major parties, altering the balance in competitive districts.
2. Are third-party candidates always spoilers?
Not necessarily. While they can influence outcomes in close races, third-party candidates also provide voters with alternative options and highlight issues overlooked by major parties.
3. What role did super PACs play in boosting third-party candidates?
Super PACs like the Voter Protection Project and Save Western Culture invested heavily in supporting Libertarian and independent candidates, often to weaken major-party contenders. Their funding and strategies significantly impacted key races in 2024.
4. Do third-party voters always lean Republican or Democratic?
No, third-party voters have diverse motivations. While Libertarians are often considered closer to Republicans ideologically, their votes are not guaranteed for any party.
5. Will third-party dynamics continue to shape U.S. elections?
Yes, as long as the two-party system remains dominant, third-party candidates will influence elections. Their role will depend on voter dissatisfaction and strategic interventions by major-party affiliates.